How to pick long term stocks?

How to pick long term stocks? This question puzzles every investor during their initial days in the stock market. No set of filters can work always in the stock market. The market is very dynamic but following few basics goes a long way. Let us look at some of them.

  • The bussiness should be profitable, quarter after quarter, year after year. Positive EPS is desirable.

Beginners should stick to businesses that are profitable. To check if a business is profitable, we can quickly check a ratio EPS which stands for Earnings per Share. you can read more about EPS here in this blog. A positive EPS number is advised. Positive EPS shows that the company is making profits. We can check EPS of any stock by looking at google or visiting websites like Moneycontrol etc.

  • PE ratio

PE ratio helps us to filter a stock out of its peers for investment. The IT sector has multiple companies listed on the stock exchange, which one is relatively underpriced? We can answer this question by looking at the PE ratio of every stock listed in the IT sector. As a rule of thumb, the lesser the PE ratio, the more it can grow to reach the P/E of its peers. P/E is nothing but the current price of stock/EPS.

  • PEG

PEG stands for PE / Earnings Growth. This ratio goes a long way to indicate how the business might perform in future. The lower the PEG ratio, the better the stock is. Negative PEG is a warning that the business is either making losses or expected to make losses in future. A very insightful explanation of the PEG ratio can be read here.

  • Debt to equity ratio

Suppose you have to start a business and you need some working capital. You can use some of your own savings but if you run short of capital, you ask your friends/banks to fund your business and promise to pay back. The amount that you have to pay back, is a liability. Debt to equity is a simple measure of the amount you have to pay back/Your own capital infused in business. Even if your business doesn’t perform well, you will be under pressure to return money to friends/banks. But if you did not ask for any help from friends and banks, you have one less issue.

Ideally, debt to equity of 0 is desirable. This simply means that you do not have to pay back anyone.

  • Mutual fund holdings

Mutual funds have very qualified fund managers at the helm of affairs. They are vastly experienced and usually are early and fast movers. They know when to enter a stock; if they should keep buying it, if they should book partial profits and if it is the right time to exit the stock. We can take a clue from the activity of mutual fund managers in a particular stock. We can check mutual fund activity by clicking this link here and inputting the scrip name. Suppose we entered CDSL, we can see how the holdings of funds houses change over time.

CDSL fund holdings
Change in Funds holdings over time
  • Dividend yield

The dividend yield is a ratio in percentage, which conveys how much dividend is paid that year/Current market price of the scrip. Higher the dividend yield, the better it is. Zero or low dividend yield should not stop us from buying a stock though. Dividend yield should act as one of the last filters when one is confused between two businesses with very similar potential.

How to place a stop loss?

One of the questions that I often come across is, “How to place a stop loss? What should be the maximum loss that I should take before closing the position in a losing trade?

Money management is one of the most important skills that a trader should possess in order to become successful in the stock market. Stop loss is what helps us in managing our capital in an efficient way. Proper money management ensures that one can take multiple Trades without wiping of our entire capital.

You should always make sure that the maximum loss you should take in a single trade should not be more than five per cent of your capital. So if you are starting with a capital of 10000 Rupees, you should not lose more than 500 rupees in a single trade. Similarly, if your capital is 100000 rupees, you should make sure that you do not lose more than 5000 rupees in a single trade.

The initial capital will vary from person to person so would the maximum loss that a person can take. If you follow proper money management, you can take 20 trades at a time. I do not suggest you take 20 trades at a time, I am just pointing out that you should be wrong 20 times to lose your entire capital.

What if you did not follow money management with a maximum 5 % stop loss? You let your losses run huge and maybe after 4-5 wrong trades, your entire capital will be wiped out. Let us learn to place a proper stop loss and preserve our capital.

Once you have decided how much maximum loss you as a trader can take in a single trade, now you have to decide the quantity that you can buy or sell. How can you decide the quantity? Quantity would be nothing but the maximum loss you can take divided by the maximum loss per share that you have decided based on your analysis of support, resistance, EMA, 200 EMA, trend lines etc.

Suppose ITC is trading at 200 rupees and has strong support at 198 rupees. You are hopeful that ITC would not breach 198 rupees level on the downside. This can act as good support and your stop loss could be placed below 198. That would be a stop loss of 2 Rupees per share.

A person with an initial capital of 10000 can lose a maximum of 500 if 5% rule of money management is kept in mind. The trader has also noted that he can place a stop loss of 2 rupees on a buy trade in ITC. So the trader can go into the buy trade with 250 quantity.

Similarly, if a trader has an initial capital of 100000 rupees, he can go into the buy trade in ITC with 2500 quantity.